While most assessments of the U.S. recovery focus on its relatively “jobless” nature, that very fact points to a productivity boom, itself the result of a substantial reindustrialization of the U.S. economy, in high-tech manufacturing. While Asian economies undoubtedly suffered as a result of global uncertainty, they too are showing notable resilience, especially India and China, where the unleashing of domestic demand could spark another round of growth. Similarly, Latin America—particularly Brazil but in some respects much of the rest of the region—has picked up after suffering the effects of the crisis on its biggest trading partners. The wild card, of course, is Europe. If the sovereign debt crisis spins out of control, its effects are incalculable, which makes signs that pragmatism could prevail all the more significant.
1. Federal Reserve estimates.